Will 2026 be a "blue wave" election for Democrats? To listen to the media and more and more Democrats, the answer is yes. But hold on. Yes, we’ve seen a string of GOP losses in special elections, with the media contrasting the winning percentages against President Donald Trump’s performance in 2024. But political waves are more complicated than that. Republicans learned that the hard way in 2022. In that election, the GOP had their best party ID advantage (+3) in the history of exit polling, yet picked up only nine seats, well under the 20-35 predicted by many — a cautionary tale for confident Democrats like Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has already declared, “Democrats are definitely going to take back control of the House of Representatives.” He could well be right, but will it be a wave or another squeaker election for his party? Democrats experienced a similar frustration after high hopes for 2020. Despite winning the White House, they lost 12 seats in the House — far less than the expected 10- to 18-seat pickup. Those media-driven expectations were based on national polling that was overly optimistic when it came to both candidate Joe Biden and House Democrats’ chances. The final Real Clear Politics average at the presidential level favored Biden by 7.2 percent while the actual margin was 4.5 percent, 2.7 percent lower than what polls were showing. At the House level, the last RCP generic ballot favored Democrats by 6.8 percent; but the actual margin ended up at 3.1 percent, 3.7 points lower than the polls were indicating, a higher error rate than the presidential race. Politico described it as the “2020 Democratic House debacle.” There were multiple seat pickups for Republicans in California, New York, Florida and Iowa — nine seats among them. Three came from California, where Biden won by a 29 percent margin, and two from New York with his 23 percent margin. Part of the reason for this discrepancy between presidential and House results was Biden’s central promise to bring restraint and calm to the presidency. His focus, however, didn’t translate for downballot Democrats who misread the tumultuous events in the months leading up to the election as a national shift to the left. In contrast, then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans put together a policy agenda for their conference called “Commitment to America,” to keep the downballot messaging focused on policy and less on personality. Republicans had a two-seat advantage in the Senate (with two upcoming Senate runoffs in Georgia) and House Republicans ended up only five seats away from a majority in the House. One of the key elements in Biden’s 2020 victory was his 13-point margin among independents. House Democrats had a nine-point margin. The margin was enough for Democrats to hold the House but not enough for a wave. In the wave elections of 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018, when control of the House switched parties, the winning party won independents by a range of 12 to 19 points. But just as Democrats didn’t have a big enough margin with independents in 2020, neither did Republicans in 2022. They lost them by two points, winning only 222 seats despite a tremendous party advantage. There was a big shift in that election. Going from 2020 to 2022, Democrats dropped from making up 37 percent of the electorate to 33 percent, while independents went from 27 percent to 31 percent. That meant a number of Democrats likely moved into the independent column in 2022. Looking to this fall, it seems a major climb for Democrats to achieve the +4 party advantage they had in their 2018 wave result. However, it is also unclear whether Republicans can sustain their 2022 +3 party ID advantage either. One of the other factors in 2022 was independents’ negative views of Biden (37 percent favorable-60 unfavorable) and Trump (30-66). A variation of that environment is in play today as Trump finds himself in a similarly difficult position with independents. Overall, his job approval among independents, from the most recent Winning the Issues (WTI) survey, is 30 percent approve-63 disapprove. The favorable-unfavorable among independents for the Republican Party is 26-68. That is a tough number if the GOP hopes to stop a "blue wave," except for one other key number. The favorable-unfavorable for Democrats among independents is 28-65. How does this translate in terms of the number one issue concern among independents, the economy? Independents are equally split 39-39 (WTI) in terms of which party they have more confidence in to handle the economy. Independents are likely to decide whether we see a "blue wave" or a trickle. But trying to predict how independents will vote based on debatable election comparisons is like racing on sand — you think you’ve got traction, and the ground can suddenly shift beneath your feet. The Virginia example Just ask Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger won in 2025 by 15 points, largely because of a 19-point margin among independents and a campaign portraying her as a moderate who would focus on affordability. It worked. She reversed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s nine-point margin with independents in 2021. But moderate Spanberger has governed more like Biden, moving to implement the progressive wing of her party’s priorities with higher taxes and spending and a gerrymandering scheme even The Washington Post can’t abide. After winning independents by a 59-40 margin, only 45 percent of them approve of the job she is doing while 46 percent disapprove (Washington Post/Shar School, March 26-31). Worse for the new governor, 41 percent of independents say her policies will make Virginia less affordable, with only 27 percent saying more affordable. That means less than half of those independents who voted for her think her policies are making things more affordable. (More to come post the redistricting referendum.) Spanberger’s ideological transformation from campaign moderate to a governing progressive has cost her significant support. Yet, progressive Democrats in Congress and in primaries across the country are espousing similar far-left policies which may explain, at least in part, why the national Democratic favorable-unfavorable with independents is so bad. Although higher gas prices, driven by the Iran conflict, pose a challenge for Republicans, voters’ unhappiness with Democrats gives Republicans an opening to regain the initiative on the economy. "Blue wave" or "red save?" Too soon to make that call.
