Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Affordability has become a top buzzword for Democrats this midterm election cycle, a shorthanded way to signify voters’ rising discontent with soaring prices. But a new economic crisis could be looming, as reflected in an unexpectedly grim jobs report released earlier this month. Statistics from the Labor Department showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent. The news is especially bleak for younger Americans: For new college graduates, this is the worst job market in years, The New York Times reported this week. Artificial intelligence remains a threat but isn’t yet a main driver of unemployment (although Virginia Sen. Mark Warner expects that to change dramatically in the next two years, he said at this week’s Axios AI+DC Summit). Democrats are keeping close tabs on the economy, reminding voters that President Donald Trump’s promise to usher in a new “golden age” has, by most metrics, fallen short. Trump’s tariff policies have been tied to rising inflation and depressed hiring, and the war in the Middle East has boosted energy costs. JoAnna Mendoza, a Democrat running in a southern Arizona battleground district, said she hears frequently from voters anxious about the job market. “We’ve been talking about affordability [since] last year when we first launched,” said the former Marine Corps drill instructor, who is seeking to unseat Republican Juan Ciscomani in the 6th District. “We had listening sessions, and people [said] either they couldn’t find a job or they had a job and their wages weren’t keeping up with the cost” of living. Trump’s cuts to clean energy programs have hit the region hard, Mendoza said. “Manufacturers here in the district had been growing jobs in this area, but now everything’s at a standstill,’’ she said. Republicans, including Ciscomani, are seeking to offset those anxieties with the promise of better days ahead. The party is highlighting certain aspects of last year’s massive tax and spending law, which exempts most tips and overtime wages from taxes. The GOP is also promoting new investment vehicles for children known as Trump Accounts. Meanwhile, the next jobs report is scheduled to be released a week from Friday. Starting gate #OKSEN: Energy executive Alan S. Armstrong was sworn in to the Senate this week, succeeding fellow Oklahoma Republican Markwayne Mullin, who resigned to become Homeland Security secretary. As Roll Call’s Nick Eskow reports, Armstrong is set to hold the seat through the end of Mullin’s unexpired term in January but cannot run for a full term under state law. Rep. Kevin Hern has already secured Trump’s endorsement for this year’s regularly scheduled election for the seat. SCOTUS on elections: During oral arguments this week, the Supreme Court appeared likely to restrict state laws that allow late-arriving ballots to be counted, our colleague Michael Macagnone reported. Podcast plug: Mary Ellen joined the Inside Elections podcast last week to discuss the publication’s recent race ratings shifts and the midterm outlook for the House. Career retrospective: Retiring New York Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez talked to Roll Call’s Jackie Wang about how she got her start in politics and why she worked to mentor young people getting involved in politics, including Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, whom she endorsed as her successor. ICYMI Endorsements (GOP edition): Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC have endorsed Rep. Barry Moore for Alabama’s open Senate seat. Maggie’s List, which backs conservative women, rolled out eight more endorsements, including for Army veteran Alex Mealer, who faces a May runoff for Texas’ 9th District; Nevada state Sen. Carrie Buck, who’s challenging Democrat Dina Titus in the 1st District; and energy consultant Niki Conforti, who’s seeking a rematch with Democrat Sean Casten in Illinois’ 6th. Another conservative group, Winning for Women Action Fund, endorsed Buck and Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt in South Carolina’s 1st District. Endorsements (Democratic edition): Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is backing union ironworker Brian Poindexter, who is vying to unseat Republican Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District. The political arm of the center-left New Democrat Coalition has endorsed Colorado state Rep. Shannon Bird in the state’s 8th District, political consultant Denise Powell in Nebraska’s 2nd, Army veteran Cait Conley in New York’s 17th, Henrico County prosecutor Shannon Taylor in Virginia’s 1st and former Rep. Elaine Luria in Virginia’s 2nd. The pro-Palestinian Peace, Leadership and Accountability PAC endorsed a pair of state legislators, Claire Valdez in New York’s 7th District and Justin Pearson in Tennessee’s 9th, as well as Army veteran and former combat trauma surgeon Adam Hamawy in New Jersey’s open 12th District. And in the race to succeed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District, Elect Democratic Women, which was founded by Democratic congresswomen, is backing San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. Dropping out: Megan O’Rourke, a former Agriculture Department climate scientist, and professor Beth Adubato dropped out of the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 7th District just before the state’s filing deadline. Four Democrats will compete in the June primary to take on Republican incumbent Thomas H. Kean Jr. #NY17: Peter Chatzky, one of the Democrats challenging GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District, apologized for lewd comments and jokes made on his personal Facebook page after The New York Times reported on them last week. #NHSEN: Strong as Granite PAC, which is supporting former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown’s bid for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, dropped $131,000 on direct mail attacking former Sen. John E. Sununu, his top rival for the GOP nomination. #CAGOV: California’s primary rules — under which all candidates run on the same ballot with only the top two finishers, regardless of party, making it to the general election — have led to the possibility of an unthinkable outcome: a November election with no Democrats on the gubernatorial ballot. Ad watch: House Majority Forward is running ads in 12 GOP-held congressional districts blaming Republicans for long lines at airport security. The NRSC, meanwhile, released digital ads in 22 states touting tax provisions included in Republicans’ sweeping 2025 tax and spending law. Nathan’s notes Health care isn’t a top campaign issue this year, public polls show, but strategists in both parties believe congressional candidates who are health care practitioners or professionals won’t get quickly written off by voters the way a typical attorney or state legislator would, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections reports. In his latest dispatch, Nathan examines some of the doctors and nurses hoping to operate in Congress next year. What we’re reading See you in Dallas? Republicans are considering Dallas as the site for an untraditional midterm-year convention as they seek to buck historical trends and hold on to control of Congress, The New York Times reports. Hot or not? The Bulwark examines the role attractiveness plays in politics as it tracks Democrats’ quest to land “hot” candidates. FITN: National Journal explores how many of the potential Democratic 2028 candidates have been campaigning with New Hampshire Senate hopeful Chris Pappas as they begin to court supporters in the early-voting state. Vets voting: Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego has made several trips to Texas recently to boost Democratic support among veterans, who have traditionally favored Republicans, the San Antonio Express-News reports. Tracking the tracker: The Intercept digs into the social media account known as TrackAIPAC, and its image as either “a hero for pushing pro-Israel spending into the forefront of voters’ minds, a scourge peddling antisemitic tropes, or a well-intentioned activist group with an imperfect, ever-evolving model.” The count: 30 That’s the number of state legislative seats that Democrats have flipped in elections since the start of 2025. The latest two came this week in Florida. Despite being outspent by her Trump-endorsed opponent, Democrat Emily Gregory, a 40-year-old first-time candidate, won her race by 2 points, flipping a state House seat that’s home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Trump had narrowly carried the district in 2020 but won it by 11 points in 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot. Meanwhile, Navy veteran Brian Nathan, an electrical workers union leader, flipped a Tampa-area state Senate seat, narrowly defeating a Republican state representative who had also outspent him. The district’s voters had backed Biden in 2020 but voted for Trump by about 7 points in 2024, per The Downballot. — by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly Key race: #GASEN Candidates: Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is the chamber’s most vulnerable Democrat. He’ll face the winner of a fractured Republican primary in which the main contenders are Reps. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter and Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley. The primary is May 19, and if no one receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff four weeks later. Most public polls show Collins leading in the primary field. Why it matters: The purple-shaded Peach State is a key pickup opportunity for Republicans seeking to maintain their Senate majority. Initially, their hopes rested with Gov. Brian Kemp, who has deftly navigated the party’s pro-Trump and Trump-skeptical wings. But Kemp opted not to run and threw his support behind Dooley. Now, deep divisions among the three leading Republicans, Ossoff’s massive campaign war chest and a climate increasingly hospitable to Democrats have bolstered the incumbent’s chances. Several GOP sources told The Washington Post they are increasingly skeptical about their odds of unseating Ossoff. Cash dash: Ossoff has been a fundraising powerhouse. He reported taking in $9.9 million during the final three months of 2025 and started the year with more than $25.5 million in the bank. None of his leading Republican opponents raised more than $1.8 million during the fourth quarter of 2025. Collins brought in $825,000 and began 2026 with $2.3 million in the bank. Dooley, a first-time candidate, hauled in $1.1 million, finishing December with $2.1 million on hand. And Carter reported raising $1.7 million, which included a $1 million loan, bringing the total personal investment in his campaign to $3 million. He finished the fourth quarter with around $4.2 million banked. Backers: Dooley’s main booster is Kemp, who has joined him on the campaign trail in recent weeks. Collins has touted endorsements from former Speaker Newt Gingrich as well as several of his House colleagues. Ossoff has the full backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and other Democratic political groups. What they’re saying: Collins and Carter have both highlighted their allegiance to the Trump agenda. Collins calls himself “Georgia’s conservative workhorse,” while Carter identifies as a “MAGA warrior.” Dooley, the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley, has positioned himself as an outsider who is “not part of the political establishment.” Republicans have sought to portray Ossoff as a liberal who votes in lockstep with his party. Ossoff told the Post that he doesn’t seek the spotlight, but in recent months he’s stepped up his public criticism of Trump. Terrain: Trump carried Georgia by about 2 points in 2024, four years after Joe Biden famously carried the state by less than a quarter of a percentage point. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates this year’s Senate race a Toss-up. Wild card: Trump’s endorsement could make or break any of the Republican contenders. But, like contested Senate primaries in Kentucky and Texas, the president has yet to weigh in. NOTUS reported that Kemp met with the president last year to work on finding a Republican to take on Ossoff. But Kemp settled on Dooley “without the express backing of Trump.” Dooley is now placing third in most public polls. Coming up Early voting in the special election runoff for Georgia’s 14th District begins Monday and runs through Thursday, April 2. Trump-endorsed Republican Clayton Fuller is favored over Democrat Shawn Harris in the fight for the deep-red seat previously held by Marjorie Taylor Greene. Photo finish Iowa Sen. Charles E. Grassley, right, prepares to shake hands with appointed Oklahoma Sen. Alan S. Armstrong during his ceremonial swearing-in inside the Capitol’s Old Senate Chamber on Tuesday. Armstrong’s wife, Shelly, stands in the center. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
